Predictions For Bathurst
Well Bathurst is only a couple of weeks away so lets have some suggestions on whose going to win.
pic of Map:
http://www.v8supercars.com.au//v8data/crct/crct_128.jpg
Heres some info to help you decide:
Current Qualifying Record: John Bowe - Ford - 2.08.3873 - 2002
Current Lap Record: Brad Jones - Ford - 2.09.5705- 2002
(before anyone has a go at me Murphy's time last year was a Top 10 shootout time not a race lap time nor a qualifying time)
Past Results
Driver on Pole
1998 - Skaife/Lowndes - Holden
1999 - Larkham - Ford
2000 - Gardner/R.Bates - Ford
2001 - Ambrose/Wakefield - Ford
2002 - Skaife/J.Richards - Holden
2003 - Murphy/R.Kelly - Ford
#44 Simon Wills/Paul Stokell
#45 Dale Brede/Will Davison
Toll:
#75 Anthony Tratt/Tomas Mezera
Triple 888:
#88 Paul Radisich/Max Wilson
#888 Yvan Muller/Dean Canto
Romano:
#24 Garth Walden/Grant Elliot
Smiths Trucks:
#14 Lee Holdsworth/TBA
HYL:
#46 Kurt Wimmer/Christian D’Agostin
.....................
My Predictions:
This time im going to pick the top five from both Holden and Ford,
Ford:
Ambrose/Ritter: They had tremendous pace at Sandown and i dont think they will have any trouble repeating it at Bathurst. Ritter proved himself worthy by keeping a decent 3 to 4 seconds lead on Murphy, until he spun off. Ambrose had a taste of his first Endurance victory in since he join the V8's in 2001, and id say that he is hungry for more.
Ingall/McLean: Both seem to drive very similar to one another. McLean also proved himself by putting Ingall in a position to both take 2nd place and led the race. Ingall kept his cool for most of the race, if he can apply this to Bathurst Ingall and McLean may get to taste Bathurst victory
Bowe/B.Jones: They came from 21st in the field to finish 6th, just imagine if they started at the front of the grid. Ozemail seems to share similar pace to that of SBR, but traffic would have slowed them down. Dont be surprised to see these two up front as i think they are one of Ford's best chances of winning this year.
Johnson/Luff: Talk about stealth, they came out of no where to finish 3rd at Sandown. This would be very valueable to them come Bathurst. DJR seems to have found some pace on board both #17 and #18. I think they could be some serious top five contenders.
Bargwanna/Winterbottom: Bargs had some bad luck last year at Bathurst but with young Winterbottom by his side i think they might be a podium chance. Last year Winterbottom found himself in 3rd position before the enigne on the SBR Falcon blew. Bargs and Winterbottom should be fast and competitive enough to keep up with the front runners.
Holden:
Skaife/T.Kelly: Bad luck fell upon Skaife at Sandown, but bad luck rarely follows Skaife to Bathurst (execpt last year). Skaife and T.Kelly are both equaly fast and Todd maybe be a bit more confident considering that he is in a better position than Skaife at the moment. They will be a definate Top 5 finisher if they keep their race clean and if Skaife lets T.Kelly do most of the hard stuff.
Tander/McConville: The GRM cars are always strong at Bathurst and McConville partictuarly is strong with a competitive team. McConville is full of confidence after winning his first round at Winton this year and as of last has been a regular in the top 10. Tander will be in the running this year chmapionship if he can win Bathurst and will want to prove that he is capable of causing yet another upset this year.
Murphy/R.Kelly: Althought they havent been the fasted all year they seem to pull things together come Enduro time. Rick won his first pole position at Sandown and Murphy will be looking to better his shootout time from last year. Look to seem them on the front row of the grid and later on the podium when the race is over. If they can show the same pace as last year and the same luck then Murphy and Kelly should have no trouble makeing it back to back.
S.Richards/J.Richards: They werent that lucky at Sandown, but both these drivers have very successful history at Bathurst. Both being past winners there is alot of experience around the #11 car, not to mention that Perkins knows how to build Bathurst winning cars and consistly fast cars that always last the 1000 kays.
Brock/Plato: Plato i think really showed that the #05 car should not be over looked after being in tenth place (before he spun). At Bathurst they should easily make the top ten. All Brock needs to win is a reiable car, a reiable co-driver and that should be enough for this team to win.
It's any body's race, look at last year, who woulda thought Murph woulda won a week before hand, IMO, ford's going down, and they will not win but I dunno.
monaro
09-16-2004, 03:37 AM
GRM for my tip
Y2kGoofball
09-16-2004, 04:18 AM
nah my honest opinion I cant decide ...
I spose if I had to ...
HRT #2 OR PWR #50
SBR #1
CPR #11
HRT #2, skaife WANTS a win and what better place. He'd also be fuming still over Sandown because that looked like what could possibly have been a HRT podium and although HRT havent had a good year this year or last they still have what it takes to last the distance, that is pending stweards decidions or writing off the car!
PWR #50 - Bright wants to prove to Weel and the team they were stupid for replacing him with Murph. He hasnt had that much of a good run but I mean when you consider the disadvantage of running the older VX last year, then stepping into a new VY with PBP suspension etc he's done alright!
CPR #11 - Richards and Richards, what more do I have to say? As skaife said "after they faught in 2002 (or was it last year, I cant remember? anyway) in opposing teams colours, imagine how well they'll do together". Jim is no stranger to the mountain or the Commodore, Steve's out to prove Perkins Motorsport is back in business
HRT #05 is a possibility, I mean Plato wasnt doing too bad considering he hasnt driven a V8 since the VT of 2000's Bathurst, then thrown into a completely different car, and as he said at Sandown in 2000 he was put into a car hes never driven on a wet track thats hard to negotiate at the best of times! He;s hoping for some clear weather to try and stand out. I think it may be Brocky out of the 2 that struggles a bit, I mean he hasnt had a full time drive since 1997, look at 2002 with Team Brock when Skaife came round Murrays Corner on lap 161 and OVERTOOK a very lapped #05 machine, and hes barely driven the 05 VY this year, the GRM Monaro is so different to a V8 Supercar yet hes confident thats enough to get him over the line in first? Possibly
KRT #51 Murph wants to make his mark on his team before he leaves, Ricks proved last year and at sandown this year hes a driver and ready for the battle. Murphy proved last year in the shootout they meant business, which showd all day with not one slip up, and after every safety car they were off like a shot.
As for Fords, well SBR #1 duh ... want to make it back to back enduros and ambroses 1st Bathurst. Will want to win the great race while the #1s still on the door so its recorded as the SBR #1 Falcon that won it. After Sandown they proved anythings possible, even if it does mean your competitiors do a Steve Bradbury, you know ... the olympic ice skater who was last till ALL the competitors fell over on the last corner, allowing him to take the gold?
FPR #6- I dunno, they seem to suck during normal racing but bring out the spirit during enduros. I think Lowndes and Seton want to see what FPR are really made of, I think FPR want to prove to the 2 they were stupid for both leaving by giving them a reliable car and engine! this said they are still also monitoring the #5 cars drivers, as they could potentially be next years FPR drivers!
DJR #17 - I dunno. Dick'd be trying to wow Seton into thinking he's made a good move into DJR next year by kick starting DJR's competitive nature now so its ready for Seton next year! Luff would be trying to prove they shouldnt've let him go, and Johnson, well, I got nothing against him I spose! He's still trying to decide whether to stay with daddy or go elsewhere.
BJR #21 - hmm, you know they can win a race ... when the car doesnt fall apart ^_^
Bo0
09-16-2004, 07:08 AM
Geez, this is gonna be tough. I refckon it will be a driver combo that nessecarily have not been domnant this year, but consistent and reliable and have luck on their side obviously.
I think i'll reserve my picks until the event nears closer; anything can happen in the next few weeks or so.
ford's going down
You say that every round :rolleyes: but really its anybody's race.
VQ
09-16-2004, 07:12 AM
yeah well, I might as well stick with the same motto and it will be right one day....
Y2kGoofball
09-19-2004, 02:58 AM
can only hope thats right on the Sunday ^_^
Perko_Rulz
09-19-2004, 10:21 PM
I think Jim and Stve first, Marcos and Greg second and Greg and Rick third.
Y2kGoofball
09-20-2004, 01:57 AM
makes sense
I think if 05 can stay out of trouble it could make it inside the top 5. I dont think it'll make 1st, Brocks been out of V8 Supercars for too long, Platos never really been in them, but at sandown plato prooved how quick he can pick it up
Bo0
09-20-2004, 02:27 AM
yeah he sure did, they should do well at the mountain providing they stay out of the mess during the day but i have a feeling that they should be a solid contender around in the top 10.
VSV6
09-20-2004, 03:43 AM
Well as long as Bargearse Bowe doesn't smack Skaife's door open He has a real chance of a Podium.
Murph and Rick are my picks for the win, however Bright and Weel could grab the win too if they can stay out of trouble.
Seton and Lowndes should be a good pick for this round, nothing went wrong with their car at Sandown which means they should be able to produse the same thing at Bathurst, providng their are no plastic bags ^_^
Cheers
-Mike
Mickcals
09-20-2004, 05:16 PM
Seton and Lowndes should be a good pick for this round, nothing went wrong with their car at Sandown which means they should be able to produse the same thing at Bathurst,
Yeah thye should be alright, cause at the miute they are in the same situation that they were last year, their cars didnt have the same pace as the front runners (like Bathurst last year) but they were still there (but they got punted of the road)
murph_fan
09-20-2004, 10:58 PM
Well this again is a hard decision to make, because there are a lot of drivers who have a chance.
1. S. Richards/ J. Richards
2. McConville/ Tander
3. Ellery/ Youlden
4. Murphy/ R. Kelly
5. Ingall/ McLean
OTHER SERIOUS CONTENDERS: Ambrose/ Ritter, Skaife/ T. Kelly, Radisich/ Muller, Bright/ Weel and Winterbottom/ Bargwanna.
But I really reckon that Car #11 and Car #34 will have a highest chance at winning - one of those 2 pairings.
Mickcals
09-21-2004, 04:24 PM
Yeah both Steven Richards/Jim Richards and Tander/McConville are very god and winning combinations.
they will both be in the top 10 easily
lewi
09-22-2004, 12:11 AM
It'll be a good race, no matter the winner :) I hope Jason Richards and coulthard do well cos they finished in the top 10 last weekend!
Mickcals
09-22-2004, 06:41 PM
Well Tasman Motorsport cars have been fast since they got their VY
murph_fan
09-23-2004, 11:03 PM
yeah they have, they would be listed in my 'underdogs' list.
VQ
09-25-2004, 04:35 AM
Brock raced a qaurter of the 24 hour bathurst race in which they won, so you can't say he is out of practice.
chris
09-25-2004, 05:28 AM
Brock and Jason Plato are a good combination. Plato knows the circuit well, he has raced their previously in various cars, including Frank Williams' deceptively fast Renault Laguna 2L touring cars.
The Swiss driver Alain Menu is another to keep an eye on. He is one of the best touring car drivers in the world. He has also raced at the circuit on numerous occasions before.
The quiet achievers could be the GRM team with Alan Simonsen and Nathan Pretty. Simonsen also knows the track well, he very nearly pulled off the fastest lap of the race last year in the 24 hour race in a heavily penalised/restricted Diablo GTR.
Y2kGoofball
09-25-2004, 06:50 AM
VQ but as Brock also admitted publically during Sandown its been a while since he's been behind the wheel of a V8 supercar properly, and he admits the VX of 2002 was different to his VS of 1997, yet the VY is different again to both
So it comes down to the car, not just knowing the track, because an often forgotten part of motorsport is different models of cars drive and handle differently, even a V8 Supercar!
I was reading too a good summary of points by Mezera
Look at a few things here ...
HRT will focus on their #2 car more then anything. Although 05 will be in their minds its only really there for publicity, if it pays off then fine, if not oh well, they needed 2 x drivers for the second HRT anyway!
PWR and KRT are the same, focussing on their main cars (#50 and 51)
SBR on the other hand would be focussing on the #1 car for obvious reasons, still they also have the #9 car to think about as well, so their split 50/50
BJR would be focussing on the Bowe/Jones car ... still Brad would like to see Andrew finish fairly good, and why not!
FPR is split ... do they want a good result from the 2 drivers that most FPR fans are backing, and the same 2 that are leaving, or do they want a good result from the 2 drivers that may be there next year?
CPR is obviously focussed on #11, but Perkins wouldnt mind his #8 car being high up the ranks either
Although you cant say "they reject one car and all focus on the other" on race day there are teams that are really focussed on 1 of their cars for the day like HRT or PWR, yet there are teams that need to split their focus 50/50 for both cars like FPR and SBR!
chris
09-25-2004, 07:31 AM
Brock is a very good driver still, and good drivers adapt to nearly anything they are given to drive. I mean, look at all the different cars Brock has raced on circuits over the years:
Porsche 956C (entered by Porsche Cars Australia at various 1983 WSC events including Le Mans with Larry Perkins as the #2 driver.)
Group A Commodores
Toranas
Ford Sierra RS500
Monaro GT car, etc.
various production cars.
You name it, he has probably raced it during some stage of his career. I still reckon he is pretty sharp these days.
It's the same thing with "gentleman" Jim Richards, he hardly drives V8 Supercars at all, and mostly drives only 400hp rear engined 911s with radically different handling characteristics, and yet put him in a V8 and his is fast and consistent right away.
I've seen examples of that elsewhere, like with Carlos Sainz for instance. He hardly ever races on closed circuits, let alone in GT1 type cars, yet Toyota put him in the GT-One prototype and by the end of the day he was doing the same lap times as GT-One regular driver Martin Brundle. And Brundle is a seriously good driver, he is very fast.
All good race-drivers have that ability to just get into a car and become at one with it very quickly. The first thing they do is get a feel for the way it drives, and then they quickly try to find the limits of grip and braking, and they will stay at or near those limits.
Back to Brock, I think people would be foolish to write him off.
Perko_Rulz
09-25-2004, 08:12 AM
Back to Brock, I think people would be foolish to write him off.
Very true. Also with the drivers go well in anything, the same is with Valentino Rossi. He jumped into a rally car and was excellent. He had a go in a F1 car and posted respectable times and He jumped onto an insuperrior bike being the Yamaha and is leader or the Moto GP Championship.
Champion is made by his or her skill, not what they use.
Mickcals
09-25-2004, 05:00 PM
Brock and Plato will make the top 10, i think. After there performance at Sandown, qualifying 25th and finishing 14th (after a spin from Plato when he was in 10th) It think they ll be right just as long as Brock does the first and last stint.
Also remember last year at Bathurst Longhurst and Jim Richards in the then #2 HRT car. They finished in the top 10 and qualified higher then car #1 (they qualified 3rd while Skaife/Kelly were 8th)
I think you ll find that alot of the number 2 cars for each team will be as competitive if not more than the number 1 car for example:
Brock and Plato may very well do better than Skaife and Todd, especially considering the luck that Skaife seems to be carrying.
Also Ingall and McLean (i think) will more than likely up stage Ambrose and Ritter
Dumbrell and Longhurst may finish ahead of Steven and Jim as i think they are a very strong combination
Muller and Canto could upset there team mate Radisich and Wilson. Both Muller and Canto have been just as fast as the two full time drivers.
And then theres Pretty/Simonsen, Menu/Macrow, A.Jones/Cleland and Braham/O.Kelly.
There are some really strong combinations this year, which is why it has been difficult selecting a possible winner as all these combinations can win
murph_fan
10-05-2004, 02:38 AM
thats dead right Mickcals which is why i can't wait for the race!! BTW, are u and Y2k going this year?
Mickcals
10-06-2004, 10:20 PM
Yeah were gonna go up on Saturday then return to the city life to watch the race at his house through surround sound and Bigpond :D
VQ
10-06-2004, 11:30 PM
don't u liek having money to burn? I mean in our house we don't even have broadband, let alone a big screen tv or digital!!!
Mickcals
10-06-2004, 11:49 PM
well neither Y2k or myself have a big screen TV.
Although Y2k does a digital box and broadband and Foxtel Digital (i will be getting Foxtel Digital very soon)
VQ
10-07-2004, 12:03 AM
Ok, then at least a surround stereo system, I don't know where I got the big screen TV from, wasn't he talking about getting one?
Y2kGoofball
10-07-2004, 02:39 AM
VQ
1) digital box is just that, cost me $300 at the local markets and does a half decent job most of the time. Nothing too special.
Keep in mind too I'm being payed $288 a week after tax, its different when your working to when your at school. It only takes me a month to save a grand, already In 3 weeks of working ive bee payed $864, so yes, I do have money to 'burn'
2) The tv we brought this time last year, its 68 CM opposed to our old 51 CM TV which was quite a number of years old. I dont know where you got the idea of a big screen from? Out house couldnt accomodate anything bigger then what we've got
3) Fox digital yes thats a money spender we all agree on that. We have the complete package which costs a fair but but once youve used it for a bit it does become worth it
4) Bigpond is payed for by my mums business, she runs 2 herself as well as contracts. when you work out the money side of it the internet pays for itself, because its a requirement of my mums business to have always on fast internet for upload / download large files etc
V8 Supercars event is free to run, although its not as good as they advertise on tv or trackside, as ive pointed out to them trackside we dont get a massive satellite dish like theyve got. They reckon thats because theyve got no telephone line to hook standard ADSL into, true, but sat has faster speed then cable as it is so it makes out like Bigpond is fast!
5) Surround sound cost $70 from Strathfield Car Radios and its not even surround. All we did was hook the speakers up and put them on the arm rests of the lounge chairs, so youve got sound closer to you. We mainly use it for the sub woofer
VQ
10-07-2004, 04:51 AM
ok, I was only working from the info I had wasn't I? Sorry about that, I didn't mean anything by it if you took any offense to it.
I can't get a job, because apparantly I'm unemployable, I do kung-fu on saturday mornings, I have drama on tuesdays and now I have a school production which is on a couple more days a week, so till the end of the year no one will want to employ me.
murph_fan
10-07-2004, 08:59 PM
i thought this topic was about Bathurst 1000!!!
you can check out all practise results on the v8 site..
www.v8supercar.com.au
Qualifying should be soon.
King Leonardo
10-08-2004, 12:53 AM
Murph to win at Bathurst :beer:
Mickcals
10-08-2004, 01:01 AM
Or is that they just dont like you???? (just kidding :D )
murph_fan
10-08-2004, 01:46 AM
THE MOUNTAIN MAN STRIKES BACK!!!
Greg Murphy scored provisional pole, with a 1:08.01 with Jason bright second and Jim and Steven Richards 3rd.
4th was Lowndes, Ingall was 5th, Paul Morris 6th, Bargwanna is 7th, Bowe is 8th, Paul Dumbrell 9th and Marcos Ambrose rounding out the top 10 for Saturdays shootout.
Unfortantly Skaife/T Kelly missed the top 10, and even top 15, because of a watts linkage failure after lap 2. They only fixed the problem 5 mins to spare and weren't able to get a good time.
Tander/McConville 11th, Steve Ellery 14th, Wilson 22nd (see I told ya Max should be leaving 888, not Rat!), Brock/Plato 26th (c'mon, when the hell is brock going to 'give it up' and retire, he's passed his best, he wont win another Bathurst, so why doesn't he quit??? The other old drivers knew when enough is enough so why can't Brock.)
And for the Kiwi's in the forum, Craig Baird is sitting in 23rd on the grid.
That's ford's fault, they designed the watt's linkage, so blame ford!!
yeah that is impressive, I hope murph wins. We need a Holden Bathurst win to shutup the Ford fans.
Bo0
10-08-2004, 03:08 AM
it'll be a very intense shootout, the forst three guys are within 0.04 sec of eachother which shows how hard they are breathing down murph's throat. I'm going richo for pole. Murph will choke ^_^
murph_fan
10-08-2004, 03:44 PM
Well If Murph does another performance like last year, then he'll get pole easily.
But Richards could possibly snatch pole (it is Steven doing the shootout isn't it?).
skaife_fan
10-08-2004, 04:48 PM
Even if Jim Richards does the shootout he will do alright. Remember last year he got 2nd.
VSV6
10-08-2004, 05:52 PM
That's ford's fault, they designed the watt's linkage, so blame ford!!
^_^
Well I wouldn't vote Skaife out just yet
He has proved before that he can pull himself out of a hole like this.
Lets just hope Bowe stays away from his door this time :nono:
Otherwise I still think Murf can grab pole.
Ford aren't well known for getting pole at Bathurst, and even when they do they never seem to stay there for long :p
I have my 10 bags of Doritios, Meat Pies and a couple of beers all lined up for the race tomorrow and look foward to watching it as it is always a fun race!
Cheers
-Mike
murph_fan
10-08-2004, 07:42 PM
Last year Bowe got second but Jim Richards did better in the top 10 shootout than Skaife, I think he came 4th or something.
VQ
10-08-2004, 08:15 PM
I'm looking forward to it too, but I'm also going to be 3D modeling, last year, i was down hovercrafting during the Bawthurst weekend and watched it on a portable TV off a battery.
Y2kGoofball
10-10-2004, 12:17 AM
WTF's the Bawthurst?
Is this some kind of hovercraft lingo?
... bort? who in the hells named bort?
murph_fan
10-10-2004, 09:43 PM
3d modelling while Bawthurst is on?? LOL JK
Serious, did you watch Bathurst in the end or were you 3d modelling instead, the race was fantastic!
VQ
10-10-2004, 11:17 PM
I watched the race and trieds to get V8C running, but my steering wheel is messing up, so I didn't do much on that, so instead I just watched it on my TV with my comptuer stereo hooked up to it, the sound wasn't that good but.
Perko_Rulz
10-11-2004, 05:00 AM
bathurst = good and don't move from tele. Thats what it was supposed to be but I went to a bbq with friends of the family. It was a too good of a day to pass up a barbie. And well done Murphs, you legend. I think he could be the first driver to go 10 wins.
Edit: I was fixing my spelling.
VQ
10-11-2004, 05:16 AM
Brock just keeps having bad luck, I mean when he orignally retired in 97' they had an engine fire, similar to the one that happened at Sandown to another team, and this year, he doesn't even get a drive, he needs a proper go before he can leave, and he will I bet.
monaro
10-11-2004, 06:32 AM
nah he wont, he was pretty serious and emotional about this one.
Y2kGoofball
10-11-2004, 02:10 PM
only because Biante Model Cars had a huge financial input into it, the chance for 10th was an added bonus ;)
It doesnt take long to work out when Biante were announcing they were a major factor in his return and that they can guarantee it was his last that they had something to do with it ... plus the Biante team were hanging out round HRT pits all weekend ...
Personally I can see it happening again in 05, I mean 2005 like we said originally, why not do 05 in '05!
Mickcals
10-11-2004, 05:52 PM
Despite the nine times winners bad luck it seems that the two people who have yet to win Bathurst for 10 and 20 years respectively seem to have found some luck.
It great to see both Seton and Brad Jones on the poduim, one the wrong parts of the poduim but still.
Murphy and Kelly came out of nowhere to win that race, it was after the first pit stop where they jumped from about 11th or 10th to 3rd and stayed there ever since.
I think Rick Kelly deserves to be known as a two time Bathurst winner, he a great driver and will be a Series championship within the next five years (being a bit realisitc)
Why is Lowndes leaving FPR?????
Now the Bension has joined the team FPR have been quite fast, both at Sandown and Bathurst. I wouldnt be suprised if Lowndes wins a round between now and the end of the season, and the next three tracks, Indy, Symmons Plains and Eastern Creek, Lowndes has had good results at in the past.
Mark Larkham Motorsport is also taken leaps and bounds with two top 7 finishes. I wouldnt be surprised if they start standing on the podium in the last three rounds.
Some bad luck for the main Holden's in the field. Bright with brake troubles, Skaife with belt trouble and Jim Richards with wildlife trouble (but that Kangaroo flew like anything)
I seems that most of the Ford teams have found their feet while the Holden team are now facing a sudden surge of confidence from the likes of DJR, LMS, 888 and FPR.
The last three round should be great season closers
murph_fan
10-11-2004, 08:55 PM
Listen Brock won't win another Bathurst again.
1987 = last bathurst win.
Almpst 20 years later when hes almost 60 - I dont think he'll win it again. i mean in Qualifying he was 2-3 seconds off the pace, and in the Warm-up he had the slowest time.
Just because he has won 9, doesnt mean he's still a great driver and can easily win more bathurst's. The other old drivers such as Perkins and johnson knew when they were no longer competitive, and quit.
Perko_Rulz
10-11-2004, 10:40 PM
Good year 1987, I was born, Brock won Bathurst and Carlton won the VFL Grand Final.
VQ
10-12-2004, 12:10 AM
Yeah, it was also a bad year, cos HDT was closed, but in 1988 was a good year, HSV's first car the VL Group A was relesed. That's it...
lewi
10-13-2004, 12:19 AM
I wonder if Biante will release a model of Brock's car after the damage =P